Euro Rises vs. Dollar, Vulnerable vs. Other Majors

The euro rose against the weak US dollar, but traded flat-to-lower versus most other major currencies on Monday. Among factors influencing the currency were new developments in the Catalan situation and disappointing inflation data.

Spanish Attorney-General Jose Manuel Maza accused Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont (and other politicians involved in the illegal referendum about Catalonia’s independence from Spain) of rebellion, sedition, fraud and misuse of funds. Puigdemont and his allies fled to Belgium, while secessionist parties agreed to participate in the snap regional election on December 21. All in all, it looks like the separatist movement in Catalonia has suffered a complete defeat, at least for the time being.

Turning to economic data, German retail sales rose 0.5% in September, in line with expectations. But the preliminary German Consumer Price Index came out worse than was forecast, showing no change in October from September, whereas forecasters had promised the same 0.1% rate of growth as in the previous month. The Spanish CPI also showed a disappointing result, rising 1.6% in October from a year ago, trailing the median forecast of 1.7% growth. Spain’s gross domestic product rose 0.8% in the third quarter of this year from the previous three month, matching forecasts exactly.

EUR/USD rose from 1.1604 to 1.1641 as of 21:47 GMT today. EUR/GBP slipped from 0.8837 to 0.8816, and its daily low of 0.8792 was the lowest since September 29. EUR/JPY was at 131.70 after opening at 131.98 on Monday.

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