Oil Remains Negative on US-China Trade Wars, OPEC Fears

Trade War and Opec News and Talking Points

$50 billion of tit-for-tat trade tariffs between the US and China may not be the end.

Trade wars threaten global growth prospects.

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Oil Price Hit by Trade War – OPEC Double

Oil took a sharp leg lower at the end of last week after the US-China trade war escalated with both sides slapping around $50 billion of reciprocal tariffs on each other. And worse may be to come with Washington saying that it will increase tariffs against Beijing, escalating the threat of disruption to global trade flows. And the oil market may also come under further downward pressure at the end of the week when the world’s top oil producers meet in Vienna from Thursday. OPEC members will discuss the current production limits with heavyweights Russia and Saudi Arabia both indicating a preference to hike output, despite signs of easing global growth.

Trade War Background Articles:

US-China Trade War – A Brief History of Trade Wars From 1900 to Now

The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Wars on the US Economy and the US Dollar

Brent Oil May Break Below $70/bbl.

After last Friday’s 5% drop, oil is currently consolidating around $72.70/bbl. but further losses may lie ahead. The daily chart shows Fibonacci support at $71.06/bbl. just above the January 25 swing high at $70.86/bbl. Below here Fibonacci retracement at $68.84/bbl. Comes into play, just ahead of the 200-day moving average at $68.30/bbl. A break and close below this level would indicate further, heavier, losses for Brent.

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Brent Oil Daily Price Chart (October 2017 – June 18, 2018)

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What’s your opinion on the Oil? Share your thoughts with us using the comments section at the end of the article or you can contact the author via email at Nicholas.cawley@ig.com or via Twitter @nickcawley1

— Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

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