Fundamental Analysis

November 15
2019

EUR/USD Rallies After Eurozone Data, Keeps Gains After US Releases

EUR/USD rallied during Friday’s trading session. The currency pair advanced after eurozone data suggested that the economy of the region is stabilizing. US macroeconomic releases did not stop the rally as the majority of indicators were disappointing. US retail sales rose by 0.3% in October, exceeding the median forecast of a 0.1% increase. The sales were down by 0.3% in the previous month. (Event A on the chart.) NY Empire State Index fell to 2.9 in November […]

November 14
2019

EUR/USD Flat on Risk Aversion, US Data

EUR/USD fell initially today but has recovered by now. The market sentiment was beneficial to safe currencies, but the lack of progress in US-China trade talks hurt the dollar a bit. US macroeconomic data was mixed, with PPI and jobless claims rising more than was expected. PPI rose by 0.4% in October, slightly exceeding the median forecast of a 0.3% increase. The index fell by 0.3% in September. (Event A on the chart.) Initial jobless […]

November 13
2019

EUR/USD Falls, But Losses Small

EUR/USD fell today, but the decline was small. The market sentiment was risk-negative after US President Donald Trump signaled at yesterday’s speech that he may increase tariffs on Chinese imports even further. Today’s testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was considered hawkish as he made positive remarks about the state of the US economy, though he also mentioned that downside risks persist. US […]

November 8
2019

EUR/USD Falls for Fifth Day of Week

EUR/USD extended its decline today, falling every single day of the week. The dollar continued to get support from signs that the United States and China are nearing to a trade deal, while a strong rally in Treasury yields added further support to the greenback. Michigan Sentiment Index rose slightly to 95.7 in November from 95.5 in October according to the preliminary estimate. Analysts were expecting a somewhat bigger increase to 96.0. (Event A on the chart.) […]

November 7
2019

EUR/USD Continues to Decline amid US-China Trade Talks Optimism

EUR/USD continued to decline today as traders felt optimistic about the US-China trade negotiations amid signs that the world’s two biggest economies are close to a deal. Currently, the pair has paused its decline and is moving sideways. Initial jobless claims were at the seasonally adjusted level of 211k last week, down from the previous week’s revised level of 219k. The actual value was close to the median forecast of 215k. (Event […]

November 6
2019

EUR/USD Backs Off After Rallying Intraday

EUR/USD rose intraday but has backed off by now as markets were choppy today, having trouble to find direction. Nonfarm productivity fell 0.3% in Q3 2019 after rising 2.3% in Q2. That is instead of rising by 1.0% as analysts predicted. (Event A on the chart.) US crude oil inventories climbed by 7.9 million barrels last week, much more than analysts had predicted — 1.9 million, and were above […]

November 5
2019

EUR/USD Declines on US-China Trade Optimism

EUR/USD declined today. One of the possible reasons for the fall was optimism about the US-China trade talks. The currency pair extended the decline after the release of US manufacturing indicators even though the data was mixed. Currently, the pair moves sideways. US trade balance deficit was at $52.5 billion in September, down from $55.0 billion in August and close to market expectations of $52.9 billion. (Event A on the chart.) Markit services PMI dropped […]

November 1
2019

EUR/USD Dips After US NFP, Bounces Later

EUR/USD declined following the release of US nonfarm payrolls as employment growth beat expectations. But the currency pair rebounded later as markets turned their attention to wage inflation that missed expectations. US nonfarm payrolls rose by 128k in October, beating the average forecast of 90k. The September increase got a big positive revision from 136k to 180k. Unemployment rate rose a bit from 3.5% to 3.6%, but market participants were […]

October 31
2019

EUR/USD Flat After Disappointing US Data, FOMC Rate Cut

EUR/USD was flat today after the majority of macroeconomic reports released in the United States today missed expectations. Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates. Personal income and spending rose in September. Personal income rose 0.3% after increasing by 0.5% in August (revised up from 0.4%). Personal spending rose by 0.2% after increasing at the same rate in the previous month (revised up from 0.1%). Analysts had […]

October 29
2019

EUR/USD Recovers After Falling Intraday

EUR/USD fell intraday but has recovered by now, trading near the opening level. The sense of optimism on markets about the US-China trade negotiations was helpful to the US dollar. But the positive influence was negated by the outlook for an interest rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee at this week’s meeting. As for today’s macro releases in the United States, they were disappointing, with the consumer confidence demonstrating a surprise decline. S&P/Case-Shiller home […]