Talking Points:
– Advance Retail Sales in March come in at 0.6% above the 0.45 estimate
– Core retail sales miss slightly at 0.3% versus 0.4% expected
– DXY has fallen lower following the release of the data
– See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for upcoming economic data and for a schedule of live coverage see the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.
Headline and Core Inflation Rise and Meet Expectations
This morning, the Census Bureau reported their advance estimate of US March Retail Sales. The Bureau expeced 0.6% increase in over the previous month, amounting to $494.6 billion. This came in slightly above market expectations at 0.4%. The advance estimate accounts for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but excludes prices changes. Total sales this year through March 2018 were up 4.1% from the same time last year. Core retail sales, excluding auto and gas
To reiterate, this only reflects an advance estimate. The Census Bureau is scheduled to release the advance April 2018 retail sales report on May 15, 2018. The revised adjust and not adjusted estimates for March is scheduled for release on May 25, 2018.
See our longer-term forecasts for the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and more with the DailyFX Trading Guides
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey to provide an early estimate of monthly sales. These sales are categorized by the kind of business for retail and food services. Questionnaires are mailed to a sample of approximately 4,700 employerfirms. From these responses, tThe Census Bureau, computes the advance sales estimate.
You read more about the Census Bureau’s methodology in the Advance Sales report.
Below is a list of economic releases that has pushed the dollar lower:
– USD Retail Sales Advance (MoM) (MAR): 0.6% versus 0.4% expected, from -0.1% previous
– USD Retail Sales Ex Auto (MoM) (MAR): 0.2% as expected, from 0.2% previous
– USD Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (MAR): 0.3% versus 0.4% expected, from 0.3% previous
Chart 1: DXY Index 15-minute Chart (April 11 – 16 2018)
Retail sales have put the dollar index under some pressure. Prior to the print DXY traded around 89.60 Since the release, it has dipped below 89.50.
— Written by Dylan Jusino, DailyFX Research
