The Australian dollar versus the New Zealand dollar is set for appreciation, but is it a sustainable one?
Long-term perspective
After the false break of the 1.0361 weekly support that printed the low of 1.0263, the price entered into an appreciation that managed to conquer important areas, such as the monthly support of 1.0530 and weekly support of 1.0689, respectively.
It then entered a consolidation phase lined by the 1.0837 resistance and the 1.0689 support, respectively, in which it rests since the middle of September.
During the consolidation phase, the price attempted to pierce the resistance but managed only to print a false break, as it peaked at 1.0865 and then retraced under the 1.0837 level.
But what followed is very interesting for the bullish perspective, as the candle of November 11 — a strong bearish one — has already been shadowed by the next one. In other words, even if the November 12 candle is still open, the fact that — as of 9:00 GMT — the high of November 12 sits above the November 11 opening represents nothing else than a bullish signature.
Only if November 13 prints a lower low with respect to November 12, then the bears can be given a second chance.
Considering the current setup, the expectations are for the next move to point to the north, challenging 1.0837 and heading for the 1.0900 psychological level — the latter not being highlighted on the chart.
Short-term perspective
The price is in an ascending movement, as the higher lows and higher highs point out — see the green boxes.
The current impulsive swing began with a great deal of bullish pressure, as it can be seen from the long bar that started from the rightmost higher low.
Given this bullish optimism, the 1.0807 level is expected to give way and allow an appreciation that will touch the 1.0680 resistance, which serves as the main bullish target.
In the event of a failure from the bullish side to conquer 1.0807, then it can be said that a lower high would have been printed, a development that will open the door to 1.0709.
Levels to keep an eye on:
D1: 1.0837 1.0689 1.0900
H4: 1.0807 1.0680 1.0709
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