The US dollar was mostly weaker today (though it gained on the Japanese yen) despite the release of seemingly solid employment data that should have boosted the currency.
The dollar showed a confusing reaction to non-farm payrolls, rising at first but falling back very quickly. It might look surprising that the greenback did not welcome the strong jobs growth. But as it often happens, the devil is in the details. The problem that caught traders’ attention was the drop of wages. Without wage inflation, it is not likely for the Federal Reserve to continue with its rate hiking cycle.
Talking about the Fed, the markets have almost ruled out the possibility of an interest rate hike in March. Bets on a hike in June are not high either, meaning that the dollar is losing support from the major factor that has contributed to the currency’s strength in the first place — the hawkish monetary policy outlook.
EUR/USD rose from 1.0956 to 1.0995 as of 19:47 GMT today. GBP/USD was up from 1.4174 to 1.4214, bouncing from the daily low of 1.4114. USD/JPY gained from 113.67 to 114.03.
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