My last forecast (for the year 2008) missed the real world market action significantly. The financial crisis made a lot of the forecasts made by the analysts and traders useless but, nevertheless, I still wish to offer my vision for the next year. This is just my opinion and it shouldnt be taken as a serious forecast or some guide for trading.
EUR/USD will go down in 2009 and will probably reach 1.2000–1.2400 and then jump up to about 1.3000.
GBP/USD will head down; probably, to a parity.
USD/JPY will be very volatile, falling down to about 80.00 and rising up to about 100.00.
EUR/JPY will be even more volatile ending up the year 2009 not far from 130.00.
Oil. My last forecast on this important commodity missed its real trading range by the tens of dollars. In 2009 the oil will most probably remain below $75/barrel and will probably reach its bottom near $30.
Interest rates will remain quite low in 2009 but, starting from the middle of the year, the central banks will begin to increase them gradually:
Feds one will be near 1% by the end of 2009.
ECB — close to 2%.
Bank of England — ~1%.
Bank of Japan — ~0.5%.
