RTATC2011 — Day 8 — Forward-Testing and Final Back-Test

Almost one month has passed since I last posted about my Road to ATC 2011. Some important changes were applied to my MT5 expert advisor that I plan using during the contest. After a period of extensive back-testing the EUR/GBP pair was substituted with EUR/USD and Z-Score optimization was turned off on both pairs. Additionally, fixed fractional position sizing (in which position size growth with profit and declines with losses) was substituted with the flat but aggressive “3 lots per position” model.
The latest (and I hope, the final) version of my ATC 2011 EA can be downloaded for free:

  • ATC 2011 Expert Advisor
  • The forward-testing was rather unsuccessful for my EA. Not that the results were bad — I’ve noticed that the forward-testing isn’t any different from back-testing for this expert advisor in MetaTrader 5 — but I failed to test it uninterruptedly for more than several days in a row. First, I had serious problems with the internet connection for days, then there were real-life issues that prevented me from keeping the EA running and, finally, there was a 3-day downtime period on MQL demo servers. But the main result of this handicapped forward-testing is the knowledge that the EA runs and trades smoothly. Additionally, a complete similarity between the back-testing and forward-testing results makes me believe that back-testing can be trusted this time.
    Back-testing on the period between 2011-01-01 and 2011-09-01 — the period, which is used by the ATC 2011 automated EA testing system — ended up with $82,878.58 profit, which is quite modest compared with the top results of the previous Automated Trading Championships. Nevertheless, I am still satisfied with it. You can download the back-test report:

  • ATC 2011-01-01-2011-09-01 Test
  • The main part of the development process actually ends here. But I’ll keep you informed of any dramatic changes in my EA before the championship trading starts.
    If you have no idea what RTATC2011 is, I recommend reading this post.
    P.S.: 18 days left for registration in ATC 2011. 1,831 participants registered so far. I bet the number will surpass 2,000 soon.

    If you have any questions or comments regarding the last tests of my ATC 2011 expert advisor, please feel free to reply using the form below.

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