Reverse Head-and-Shoulders on Daily Chart of EUR/CAD

The recently formed head-and-shoulders bottom pattern on the euro vs. loonie daily chart could be called a classic example of the reverse H&S if only its right shoulder were not so rough and spiky. The pattern is terminating a long-term downtrend that has started back in March of 2014. The left shoulder began to unfold on March 5 this year, and the head reached its lowest level on April 17. The lengths of both shoulders and the head are well-balanced at about one month each.
The pattern can be examined on the chart screenshot below. The neckline and the bottom of the head are marked with the horizontal dashed yellow lines. The shoulders are marked with the short yellow lines — notice how different in form the two shoulders are. The breakout trade entry is positioned at 10% of the pattern’s height above the neckline — it is marked with the cyan line. Profit target is placed at 100% of the pattern’s height above the neckline and is marked with the green line. Bottom breakout will be ignored here unless some new pattern forms (e.g. descending triangle). I will use the breakout candle’s low as my stop-loss in case of breakout. You can click on the chart to see a full-size version:

I have built this chart using the ChannelPattern script. You can download my MetaTrader 4 chart template for this EUR/CAD pattern. You can trade it using my free Chart Pattern Helper EA.
Update 2015-06-03: The bullish breakout has triggered a buy entry yesterday at 1.38844 with stop-loss at 1.36607 and take-profit at 1.45861. Unfortunately, the breakout does not seem to be strong and is slowly retracing down today:

Update 2015-06-29 8:45 GMT: The breakout faded rather soon here. The currency pair traded flat for some time before being hit by “Greek shock”. Unfortunately for me, the position closed 90 pips below my intended stop-loss when the market opened at 22:15 GMT on June 28:

PS: Luckily, my other EUR trade is showing some promise now.

If you have any questions or comments regarding this reverse head-and-shoulders on EUR/CAD chart, please feel free to post them via the form below.

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