EUR/USD Rises on Mixed US Data, Trade Wars Escalation

EUR/USD rallied today as markets were rocked by the news that China announced tariffs on US goods in retaliation to the duties introduced by the United States on Chinese imports. As for US economic reports, employment data was surprisingly good, but the services sector was growing with slower pace and the increase of factory orders failed to meet market expectations.

ADP employment increased by 241k in March, far above the predicted value of 208k. Furthermore, the previous month’s reading got a positive revision from 235k to 246k. (Event A on the chart.)

Markit services PMI fell from 55.9 in February to 54.0 in March according to the final estimate. The revised value was not far from the preliminary reading of 54.1 and the average forecast of 54.3. (Event B on the chart.)

ISM services PMI slid from 59.5% in February to 58.8% in March, slightly below the consensus forecast of 59.0%. (Event C on the chart.)

Factory orders rose 1.2% in February, failing to meet market expectations of a 1.7% increase. In January, the orders were down 1.3%. (Event C on the chart.)

US crude oil inventories slumped by 4.6 million barrels last week following the 1.6 million increase the week before. Forecasters were totally off the mark with their predictions of a 1.4 million gain. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels. (Event D on the chart.)

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