Fundamental Analysis

December 2
2016

EUR/USD Jumps Following NFP Release, Retreats Immediately

US nonfarm payrolls released today were very mixed, resulting in volatile trading on the Forex market. EUR/USD jumped after the release but backed off immediately to trade below the opening level as of now. Nonfarm payrolls rose 178k in November, in line with expectations. But the October gain was revised negatively from 161k to 142k. Unemployment rate fell from 4.9% to 4.6% unexpectedly. Average hourly earnings fell by 0.1% […]

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December 1
2016

EUR/USD Manages to Rally Despite Mostly Positive Economic Data from USA

US economic data released today was good for the most part, with the exception of unexpectedly rising jobless claims. Yet that did not help the dollar to hold its ground versus the euro. EUR/USD was rising during the current trading session, and while the currency pair pulled back intraday, it managed to stage a rebound. Now, traders wait for tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls — the most important report ahead of Federal Reserve’s […]

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November 30
2016

EUR/USD Falls After Wednesday’s Economic Data from USA

EUR/USD fell today after the release of US economic data. While some indicators trailed expectations, the data was good for the most part. The most notable report was private employment data from Automatic Data Processing, which turned out to be much better than forecasts. ADP employment demonstrated growth by 216k in November, which far exceeded the forecast increase by 161k and the previous month’s 119k (revised down from […]

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November 29
2016

EUR/USD Drops, Attempts to Bounce After US Data

EUR/USD fell today but has started a rebound after the release of US economic data. While the housing report missed expectations, the GDP and consumer confidence indicators were far better than expected. Yet European reports were good as well, helping the euro to stand its ground against the US dollar, which is currently in a consolidation mode. Now, traders wait for US employment data, both private and government. US […]

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November 25
2016

EUR/USD Rebounds on Black Friday

EUR/USD was rising today, though it has retreated from its highs by now. Most analysts believe that fundamentals remain strongly supportive to the dollar, and the currency’s retreat today was just a result of traders booking profits during the shortened trading week. Preliminary wholesale inventories fell 0.4% in October, the reading that was nowhere near the forecast increase of 0.3%. The inventories were up 0.2% in September. (Event A on the chart.) […]

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November 23
2016

EUR/USD Declines as Dollar Supported by Fundamentals

The US dollar continued to strengthen against the euro today as the greenback received some support from improving macroeconomic indicators. Durable goods orders added 4.8% in October following 0.4% increase in September (revised positively from 0.1% loss). Market analysts pointed at 1.7% increase for October. (Event A on the chart.) Initial jobless claims rose from 233k to 251k last week, in line with the median forecast of 250k. (Event A on the chart.) Markit […]

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November 22
2016

Positive US Data Prevents EUR/USD from Rising Further

EUR/USD halted its long decline and rose on Monday but was unable to extend the rise on Tuesday. The currency pair lost its upward momentum as economic data released from the United States over the trading session was good and exceeded analysts’ expectations, providing support to the dollar. Richmond Fed manufacturing index posted a reading of 4 in November after logging a reading of -4 in October. Experts had predicted a smaller increase to 1. […]

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November 17
2016

EUR/USD Fails to Rally Again

EUR/USD fell today, making it a ninth session of losses in a row, after an unsuccessful attempt to rally earlier. While economic data from the United States was mixed, markets preferred to focus on the good parts. Both housing starts and building permits rose in October. Housing starts were at the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.32 million, compared to the predicted 1.16 million and the previous month’s reading of 1.05 million. Building permits were […]

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November 16
2016

Dollar’s Post-Election Rally Continues

EUR/USD dropped on Wednesday, falling to the lowest level since the big jump on December 3 (a day that followed the mass shooting in the United States), as the dollar’s post-election rally continued. The dollar gained on the euro even though basically all of Wednesday’s economic reports released from the United States missed market expectations. PPI showed no change in October while analysts had predicted the same 0.3% rate of growth as in September. (Event A on the chart.) […]

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November 15
2016

EUR/USD Retreats After Unsuccessful Attempt to Rally

EUR/USD was rising at the start of today’s trading session but failed to maintain the rally and is trading below the opening level right now. It was not a surprise, considering that US economic data was very good as basically all reports beat expectations. Data from Europe was fairly decent as well, but it was not enough to support the euro. Retail sales rose 0.8% in October, above […]

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